CBB: NCAA Round Two Trends

2010-03-19

The NCAA tournament moves into the second round on Saturday and Sunday, as the field will be trimmed from 32 o 16 teams. Fans can only hope that this round offers up as many exciting games as the first round did. Bettors can follow the action all weekend long on the LIVE ODDS and GAME MATCHUPS pages of Sportsbook.com. For now though, be sure to give some consideration to these historical second round trends, straight from the 2010 StatFox College Basketball Tournament Handicapping Guide.


-           There was only one upset last year in the second round, as the better seeds, all favored, went 15-1 SU & 11-5 ATS (69%). OVER the total was 12-4 (75%).


-           Sunday is the more popular upset day of the opening weekend, with 36 of the 61 lower seed wins happening then. In fact, the worse seeds own a straight up record of 36-48 SU, or 42.9%. They are also 47-41 ATS, 53.0%.


-           Double-digit favorites in the second round are on a he run of 23-0 SU & 17-6 ATS (74%) since ‘01.


-           #1 seeds have really picked up the scoring in their second round games, going 28-15 OVER (65%) while scoring 80 PPG.


-           #2 seed’s that win their opening round game are just 11-16 ATS (41%) in the second round. When favored by 6-points or less, they are just 6-14 ATS (30%) in their L20. Their last seven games have gone OVER the total.


-           All eight #3 seeds have reached the Sweet 16 in the last two tournaments, boasting a 8-0 SU & 7-1 ATS record in Round Two. They are also 8-3-1 OVER the total since ’07 (73%).


-           The #4 seeds should be on upset alert in the second round, with just a 16-18 SU & 11-23 ATS (32%) mark since ’98.


-           Upset winners from the first round are just 4-11 ATS (27%) when trying to pull off another upset in the second round over the last two years.


-           In second round games where a double-digit numbered seed has met one #6 or worse, the better seed is 9-0 SU & 8-0-1 ATS (100%) over the L10 years.


March Madness will be over before you know it; get over to Sportsbook.com now to score a profit on NCAA hoops.


NBA: Top NBA Weekend Power Trends

2010-03-19

The NBA’s version of “March Madness” is the push for the playoffs, and despite the fact that the Top 8 teams in each conference have started to separate from the rest, there is still plenty to be decided over the last four weeks of the season, namely, who will match up with who in the first round of the postseason. That picture will continue to be sorted out, starting with the games over the next few days. Let’s take a look at the key action and reveal this weekend’s list of Top StatFox Power Trends for you to consider before placing your wagers at Sportsbook.com.


The Friday board features 11 games, including four in which would-be Western Conference playoff teams are playing at home. Phoenix will be hosting Utah, Portland will be at home versus Washington, the Lakers will welcome Minnesota to town, and San Antonio will play host to Golden State. The Lakers-Timberwolves game matches one of the league’s best home teams against one that has been horrible on the road and has lost its last 11 games as well as 17 of its last 18. However, the pointspread could be the great equalizer, since L.A. is just 15-19 ATS at home this season. The Spurs could have their hands full with the Warriors, since the latter have won 12 of their L17 games against the number, including their L5. Overall, Golden State is 12-games over .500 ATS on the season. San Antonio has gotten hot itself though, 8-2 SU & 7-3 ATS in its L10. The biggest game in the East has Cleveland visiting Chicago, with the Bulls trying to snap a 9-game losing skid.


On Saturday, seven games are on the board, two of which match intra-conference foes with the playoffs in their futures. In one, Boston will visit Dallas. The Mavericks are a well-publicized 14-1 in their last 15 games. However, bettors haven’t been nearly as pleased with their recent performance of 8-7 ATS in that span. In fact, the Mavericks remain an awful 8-26 ATS on the home court. Boston has played much better at times this season than it is now, and has just a 6-15 ATS mark vs. the West in ’09-10. The Bucks will also be in action, facing a back-to-back after having visited Sacramento on Friday night. That means Milwaukee will be putting its 11-6 SU & 13-3-1 ATS mark on the line when playing on zero days rest. The Nuggets will be off their Thursday night TNT game vs. New Orleans. Elsewhere on Saturday, the current #6 through #9 seeds in the East will all be in action, with Charlotte visiting Miami in the key game, Toronto traveling to New Jersey, and Philadelphia hosting Chicago.


On Sunday, there are also seven games, starting in the afternoon at 1:00 PM ET, with Houston making its only season stop in New York. The big games though are at night in a doubleheader on ESPN. In the first one, San Antonio visits Atlanta. The Hawks may be hitting a wall of late, having gone just 6-9 ATS in their L15 games after going 33-19 ATS prior. They boast a 19-9 SU & 15-13 ATS record vs. the West still. In the last ESPN game, Portland visits Phoenix. Heading into the weekend, the teams were separated by just 1-1/2 games in the standings, with the Suns tied for the 5th spot, and Portland occupying the #8 seed. That just shows how close it is right now in the West. Note that the Blazers have won four straight games in the series, both SU & ATS.


Now, here’s a look at some of this weekend’s Top StatFox Power Trends:


Friday, 03/19/2010


 (801) DETROIT vs. (802) INDIANA


DETROIT is 8-22 ATS (-16.2 Units) vs. division opponents over the last 2 seasons. The average score was DETROIT 91.5, OPPONENT 97.3 -  (Rating = 2*)


 


(809) CLEVELAND vs. (810) CHICAGO


CHICAGO is 13-2 UNDER (+10.8 Units) vs good 3PT shooting teams - making >=36% of their attempts this season. The average score was CHICAGO 93.1, OPPONENT 99.7 -  (Rating = 3*)


 


 (811) BOSTON vs. (812) HOUSTON


BOSTON is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game this season. The average score was BOSTON 97.1, OPPONENT 96.9 -  (Rating = 2*)


 


 (815) UTAH vs. (816) PHOENIX


UTAH is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season. The average score was UTAH 107.2, OPPONENT 98.2 -  (Rating = 3*)


 


 (819) MILWAUKEE vs. (820) SACRAMENTO


MILWAUKEE is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ PPG in 2nd half of this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 103.2, OPPONENT 93.5 -  (Rating = 3*)


 


Saturday, 03/20/2010


(503) TORONTO vs. (504) NEW JERSEY


NEW JERSEY is 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) vs explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ PPG this season. The average score was NEW JERSEY 92.6, OPPONENT 111 -  (Rating = 3*)


 


 (511) MILWAUKEE vs. (512) DENVER


MILWAUKEE is 23-6 ATS (+16.4 Units) vs. good free throw shooting teams making >=76% of their attempts this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 100.9, OPPONENT 95.9 -  (Rating = 4*)


 


 (511) MILWAUKEE vs. (512) DENVER


MILWAUKEE is 18-6 OVER (+11.4 Units) in non-conference games this season. The average score was MILWAUKEE 103, OPPONENT 104 -  (Rating = 2*)


 


 (513) BOSTON vs. (514) DALLAS


BOSTON is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) versus poor foul drawing teams - attempting <=24 free throws/game this season. The average score was BOSTON 95.4, OPPONENT 94.4 -  (Rating = 2*)


 


Sunday, 03/21/2010


(705) SACRAMENTO vs. (706) LA CLIPPERS


LA CLIPPERS are 11-25 ATS (-16.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season. The average score was LA CLIPPERS 94.3, OPPONENT 105.3 -  (Rating = 2*)


 


 (709) DETROIT vs. (710) CLEVELAND


CLEVELAND is 18-4 UNDER (+13.6 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CLEVELAND 97.3, OPPONENT 87.6 -  (Rating = 3*)


 


 (713) PORTLAND vs. (714) PHOENIX


PHOENIX is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) vs poor defensive teams - shooting pct defense of >=46% in 2nd half of this season. The average score was PHOENIX 109, OPPONENT 97.9 -  (Rating = 2*)


 


Go over to Sportsbook.com now to bet on all of the weekend NBA action.


CBB: Are higher seeds good or bad bet Friday night?

2010-03-19

In the final sector of first round games, five teams with seeds five or higher are in action. Just five years ago or slightly more, the higher seeds were strictly play against, as oddsmakers loaded the points on the chalk, trying to bait the public into paying dearly for heavy favorites. Yet in the last several seasons, people got wise and took the points with over-stuffed dogs and cashed a number of winners along the way. This has forced Sportsbook.com oddsmakers to produce a truer number on the higher seeds, which in turn has made picking winners that much more challenging. What will tonight bring?


(1)Duke vs (16) Arkansas Pine Bluff


The Blue Devils are being talked about in some circles as a viable option as a championship game participant. That is not exactly “man bites dog material” given Duke is the top seed in the South, but they are far and away the quietest No. 1 squad coach Mike Krzyzewski has ever had.  Sports bettors have paid attention and have been betting the Blue Devils up significantly to 23-point favs at Sportsbook.com.


Duke has kept getting better as the season trudged on. Coach K knew what to expect from Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and for the most part Lance Thomas. As the season continued, the Hall of Fame coach found ways to place Thomas in more productive offensive situations, the Plumlee brothers became ripe as a plum, playing with increased confidence and making Duke a force on the glass. If senior Brian Zoubek continues to march forward (averaging 10.1 boards in last 10 games), no reason the Dukies can’t improve to 6-2 ATS when favored by 13 or more since Dec. 15.


By now, most are familiar with the fact that Arkansas Pine-Bluff lost its first 11 games of the season, all on the road against mostly formidable competition. To their credit the Gold Lions showed heart and have won 18 of last 22. AR-PB isn’t going to knock off Duke, but they could cover the spot if they can continue to maintain +6 rebound margin.


(1)Syracuse vs (16) Vermont


The Orangemen are a 17-point choice and need to start fast to regain their swagger after losing their last two trips to the hardwood. Syracuse needs an infusion of confidence getting Wesley Johnson started and pounding the ball inside to whomever is on the court to open up shooting lanes. Dating back 13 years, the Orange are 7-0 ATS off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite.


Vermont won’t be a pushover, as they hold teams to only 39.7 percent shooting. The Catamounts have had time to breakdown workings of Syracuse’s 2-3 zone and must have top notch efforts from Marqus Blakely (two-time America East Player of the Year), Maurice Joseph and Evan Fjeld. It’s interesting to note despite Vermont not having many games showing up on big boards for bettors, they are 8-0 ATS after playing a game as favorite.


(2)Ohio State vs (15) UC-Santa Barbara


Sports talk personality Jim Rome called UCSB “the most dangerous 15th seed ever”, of course that was a whimsical quote having attended the university several years ago. The Gauchos will find out just how good they are against one of the best starting five’s in the tournament in Ohio State.


The Buckeyes have Evan Turner, as good a place to start as there is the country. Review these numbers. Ohio State is 21-4 and 17-10-1 ATS with Turner (0-6 ATS without him). His presence helps the other players get better shots and the Buckeyes are 26-2 and 17-11-1 ATS when they connect on a higher shooting percentage than opposing club. The magic number for the Buckeyes is 70, as they are 20-1 and 15-5-1 ATS when they reach that barrier and being a 17.5-point favorite with total of 132.5, suggests a 71-52 final score.


UC-Santa Barbara is presumed to put up a good fight; however they are 10-25 ATS versus solid shooting teams making 48 percent or more of their shots.


(4)Maryland vs. (13) Houston


The Terps will have a gi-nourmous edge in facing Houston. Maryland has played 20 minutes of full effort basketball since March 6, the second half in their loss in the ACC quarterfinals against Georgia Tech. The Terrapins played like turtles, moving in slow motion against the Yellow Jackets in the first half and were deservedly beaten.


Houston on the other hand played four games in four days, which is what was needed to make a first NCAA entrance in 18 years. The Cougars have to stay hotter than an August afternoon in Houston to win their fifth consecutive game. Houston heated up UTEP in the C-USA championship game with 12 treys, the 13th time this season they have drilled 10 or more deep tosses. Coach Tom Penders’ teams usually take care of the ball and are 20-6 ATS away from home after a game committing eight or less turnovers.


 


Maryland’s Gary Williams club is a 9.5-point favorite and they need to shake off last game as bad effort, figuring they were due, after knocking off seven straight opponents and posting an 8-3 ATS record in previous 11. The Terps defense can swallow up the best of offenses, holding teams to 38.8 percent and they are also 7-1 ATS versus good ball handling teams committing 14 or fewer turnovers in the second half of this season.


(5)Michigan State vs (12) New Mexico State


The Spartans are favored by 13.5 points over New Mexico State and will cover this handily if they listen to their coach and start putting in the kind of effort that took them to the national championship game a season ago. While it’s true Michigan State lacks a true center, that is not a requirement for the Aggies. New Mexico likes to motor up and down the floor, but defense is not in fashion in Las Cruces, as they concede 77.8 points per game (while scoring 78.6 PPG) and allow foes to ring up 46.7 percent shooting away from southern New Mexico. The Spartans are 21-8 ATS away from East Lansing when they score 75 to 80 points.


If Michigan State continues to be sloppy with the ball (14 turnovers a game), it could have a game on its hands. The Aggies are not a so-called mid-major that holds the ball and tries to limit possessions to slow down superior opponent; these guys are athletes and like to run. Guard Jahmar Young is a creator and an All-WAC performer at 20.5 points per game. His running mate is Jonathan Gibson and the duo combines for an average of 38 points per contest. New Mexico State wants to play fast and is 8-1 ATS after two or more Under’s. Tthe Spartans are 0-7 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 12.5 to 15 points.


Bet on these games at -105 Juice today at Sportsbook.com thanks to Reduced Juice Friday.


Following the Friday Early Line Moves

2010-03-19

The wagering public has had more time to dissect the Friday numbers and they have come up with interesting choices on the early Friday matchups. What did these people see that maybe you didn’t? Or is it you who knows something they don’t? Let’s take a look at some of these line moves, courtesy of Sportsbook.com.


The one contest the public felt the strongest about is the Texas A&M and Utah State total. In searching for the movement, this game opened at 129.5 but has since free fallen down to 125. The reasoning for it is not readily apparent, at least by how each team plays. Texas A&M averages just over 133 total points per game and 129.6 points away from College Station. Utah State is over 136 total points in all games they have played and even higher on the road at 139 exactly.


The general tendency would be to believe the pace will be slowed down for a tournament tilt and the Aggies from Logan, UT are 14-5 UNDER after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games. Texas A&M is 11-3 UNDER in road games after one or more consecutive losses. Both are good defensive squads, thus it will be curious to see what occurs.


The Purdue and Siena contest, which will be the first game in Spokane, figured to have movement at least in one direction. All week people have been talking about the Boilermakers lopsided loss to Minnesota in the Big Ten tourney and they will face a veteran Siena team that knocked off higher-seeded teams in each of the last two NCAA tournaments. Purdue opened as five-point favorites and has fallen to four at Sportsbook.com.


Even before Robbie Hummel’s season ending injury, Purdue was not a good wager and is 2-11 ATS having won eight or more of their last 10 games this season. Siena figures to be more focused than they were in MAAC champion game where they had to overcome huge deficit to win over Fairfield 72-65 to survive as nine-point favorites. On the years, the Saints are holier than thou at 10-2 ATS after failing to cover the spread.


The total on this 4 vs. 13 encounter has fallen 1.5-points to 130 and this seems a little less certain. If Siena is really ready to pull the upset, the number coming down is justified, as the Saints are 11-4 UNDER having won 12 or more of their last 15 contests. However, the Boilermakers are 14-4 OVER in road games after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread.


Many have no idea who Oakland U. is (Summit League champions) and even fewer would know they are from Rochester, MI. The Golden Grizzlies are veteran bunch, with two seniors and three juniors in the starting lineup, making their second NCAA appearance in three years. Oakland U. averages 76.8 points per game and the contests they have played that had oddsmakers numbers are 10-4 OVER. Why then is the total headed downward against third-seeded Pittsburgh?


Three factors are in play. The Golden Grizzlies played four teams in this tournament, averaging just 54.5 points a contest. The Panthers of Pitt hold opposing teams to 40 percent shooting and neutral court teams off an upset win over a conference rival as an underdog like Oakland, in a game involving two teams with win percentage of 60 to 80 percent, are 46-19 UNDER.


Missouri and Clemson are essentially mere images of one another, pressing teams that love to force turnovers and disrupt opponents into numerous miscues. Mizzou has veterans from last year’s Elite 8 club and forces 10.9 steals and 20 turnovers per contest, leading the nation in both categories. The Tigers of Clemson are ninth in the country in steals at 9.6 per game and they convert on seven shots from beyond the arc. Missouri also is not afraid to launch the three ball either, making eight of their own an outing.


The total opened at 138 and is up 1.5-points. With both teams ability to force turnovers, that usually leads to points. Each has faced a pressing defense in practice all season and should know how to attack once they break the press, taking the ball to the basket. Missouri is 10-1 OVER in last 11 NCAA battles and Clemson is 24-10 OVER after two or more consecutive Under’s.


Bet on these games at -105 Juice today at Sportsbook.com thanks to Reduced Juice Friday.


CBB: Opening Night NCAA Intrigue

2010-03-18

Top seeds Kansas and Kentucky don’t figure to have a lot or work on their hands in their opening games and No.3 seeds New Mexico and Georgetown are expected to move on and play on Saturday, but what about the other four games? This is where close contests are not only presumed, but upsets are thought to be a real possibility. Bring the shovel and start digging. Get the latest prices on these games on the Sportsbook.com LIVE ODDS page.


Are six seeds secure?

Marquette and Tennessee will both wear the favorite’s hat, but is it a snug fit or one that could be blown off under uncertain conditions. The Golden Eagles (22-11, 17-10 ATS) have won six of the last eight games, however have had issues with teams that prefer to play at fast pace. In three games in this stretch, the height-challenged Marquette squad has surrendered 50 percent or more in defensive field goal percentage to Seton Hall, Villanova and Georgetown.


In comes Washington, on a serious roll (7-0-, 6-1 ATS) as Pac-10 postseason champs. The Huskies average 79.8 points per game and like to “floor it” on offense. Washington (24-9, 14-18 ATS) has covered four of their last five NCAA tournament games and No.11 seeds that that average over 73 points a game are prime material to pull first round upsets. Washington is receiving 1.5-points at Sportsbook.com with total of 143, yet keep in mind the former Warriors from Milwaukee are 7-0 ATS when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.


Prior to SEC semi-final contest, Tennessee (25-8, 13-17 ATS) had won five in a row and seven of eight and looking like a team on the come. The Volunteers brutally grotesque loss to Kentucky by 29-point evidently has left an impression against Mountain West team that won conference tournament on the road literally, with smallish spread.


Tennessee has covered their last four outings off a spread loss, however are only 3-7-1 ATS in Big Dance tournament games. The Vols play much better from the lead, since they shoot only 31.3 percent from three-point land.


San Diego State (25-8, 18-13 ATS) is not terribly tall, yet super aggressive on the offensive boards, accounting for +7 rebound margin. Like Tennessee, the Aztecs playing outstanding defense (40.5 vs. 39.4 for Vols) and they convert on 47.7 percent of shot attempts. S.D. State stifled UNLV on their own floor in MWC title tilt, holding them to 45 points on 32.7 percent accuracy and they are 22-9 ATS after a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.


Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite, with only three covers the last 10 times they were the preferred choice.


8 vs. 9 or 9 vs. 8 who knows…

In the last 11 tournaments, the lower seed has held a slight edge with 23-21 SU record and 23-19-2 ATS mark. That would give Northern Iowa (28-4, 21-10 ATS) a narrow margin in theory and they are one-point dogs to UNLV.


The Panthers are balanced and go 10 deep and don’t beat themselves. Northern Iowa is never in a hurry offensively, with C Jordan Eglseder and F Adam Koch the inside presence and bombers like Ali Farokhmanesh to do the scoring. UNI also can tie-up teams up on defense, holding them to 54.3 points per game (40.3 percent) and are willing to do the work for the entire shot clock if necessary. This patient club is 8-2 ATS after a win by 15 points or more this season.


UNLV (25-8, 19-12 ATS) had their six game winning streak snapped in the MWC finals. The Rebels have a stellar backcourt with Tre’Von Willis and Oscar Bellfield; however do not have a starter more than 6’8 to go against Northern Iowa’s big guys. UNLV is 15-4 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 under coach Lon Kruger the last three seasons, which gives this the feel of last basket wins conflict.


The other 8 vs. 9 matchup is more about survival than just being close encounter. Wake Forest (19-10, 15-11 ATS) has wallowed losing five of six. Al-Farouq Amino is their most productive offensive weapon and the Demon Deacons do a descent job working the glass, but lack consistent scoring from the guard spots. Wake is just 1-10 ATS in previous NCAA tournament tilts.


Texas (24-9, 11-18 ATS) fell like housing values, going from No.1 in the country to an eighth seed in the course of the season, an unprecedented event. As the year has worn on, its crystal clear this team lacks chemistry, focus and dreadful point guard play exacerbates the situation. Texas is a five point favorite for whatever reason and is 3-11 ATS versus teams outscoring their opponents by four or more points per game after 15 or contests have been played this season. Anybody have a coin?

NBA Florida throw-down in Miami

2010-03-18

The Orlando Magic are feeling pretty good about Vince Carter’s steady performance in recent weeks. If they can get Rashard Lewis playing at that same level, they’ll be ecstatic. Lewis looks to build on his best game of an otherwise awful month Thursday when the Magic - seeking their 10th victory in 11 games - visit the Miami Heat. The Magic are 2-point road favorites at Sportsbook.com, but the Heat have upset on their minds.


Neither Carter (42.5 percent) nor Lewis (42.9) has shot the ball well this season. Orlando (48-21, 35-30-4 ATS) has plenty of other options to compensate for that duo’s struggles, but getting both stars on track could be critical with the playoffs approaching. Carter seems well on his way. The former Rookie of the Year has averaged 19.0 points on 54.6 percent shooting over his last 10 games as the Magic have gone 9-1 and 7-3 ATS.


Lewis, on the other hand, has been completely off his game. He had averaged 4.0 points over Orlando’s previous three games heading into San Antonio’s visit on Wednesday, and coach Stan Van Gundy said his two-time All-Star lacked energy. Orlando travels south and is 19-9 ATS in road games after a non-conference test over the last two seasons.


While Thursday’s meeting is the last of the regular season between the Magic and the Heat, it could be a playoff preview. Orlando is the East’s No. 2 seed, with Miami currently in the seventh slot.


The Heat (35-33, 34-34 ATS) won the first two games of the season series as Lewis struggled, scoring nine points in each game and shooting 25.0 percent. He fared much better versus Miami on Feb. 28 at home. Lewis had 22 points to lead the Magic to a 96-80.


Dwayne Wade has managed 23.3 points on 39.3 percent shooting against Orlando, but he’s elevated his game so far in March to help the Heat get back in the playoff picture. In ninth place after the Feb. 28 loss to the Magic, the Heat have since won six of eight behind 30.3 points per game from Wade. Yet one night before Orlando routed the Spurs, Miami couldn’t deliver against San Antonio. Wade had 28 points Tuesday but his teammates shot 36.5 percent in an 88-76 defeat. Even with the loss, Miami is 5-1 ATS in last six home games.


Sportsbook.com has Orlando as two-point favorites and they are 24-11 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 since last season. Miami has had their problems with teams with offensive format like the Magic and are 18-36 ATS versus clubs who attempt 18 or more three-point shots a game in the second half of the season.


The total is a modest 188.5, the lowest it has been in exactly three years (3/18/07), when oddsmakers had it at 186. This could go either way as Orlando is 14-4 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more and the Heat are 12-3 OVER in March home games over the last two seasons.


This is the opener on TNT at 8:00 Eastern and both teams have been sloppy on Thursday nights with the Magic 1-4 ATS and Miami 5-13 ATS. The StatFox Power Line shows Orlando by 4

NBA: Odds in Boston’s favor on St. Patrick’s Day

2010-03-17

The Atlantic Division matchup between New York and Boston is unusual to say the least on St. Patrick’s Day. In both cities reside thousands of folks with Irish heritage and a whole lot of other wannabe’s at least for a day. Both the Knicks and Celtics want to prove their heritage as winning championship franchises when they meet Boston. The latest odds show the Celtics as 9-point favorites at Sportsbook.com.


New York is trying for three consecutive wins and covers for the first time since the first week of 2010. The Knicks are at their final stop of a five game road trip, having ended Dallas’ 13-winning streak in thunderous fashion 128-94, and following that up with extending Philadelphia’s home woes with a 94-84 victory, both games playing as underdogs.


The Celtics have been more unstable than an Irish patron leaving a brew pub in their last three contests. At home, Boston blasted Indiana by 19 points and Detroit by 26, shooting 58.4 percent and even better 62.2 percent in the latter. Sandwiched in between was one quality opponent, Cleveland, and they lost 104-90, converting just 40 percent of launched attempts.


Sportsbook.com has the C’s as nine-point favorites with total of 208 and a super system is available that figures Boston might be the right play.


Play Against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more.


This scintillating system is 27-7 ATS, 79.4 percent the last 14 seasons and this is the first time it has popped up all year. New York might be off consecutive covers, however they are 10-19 ATS this season when in this spot. Boston has dominated recent visits be the Knickerbockers, winning six in a row (4-1-1 ATS).


Give consideration to this stout system along with that Guinness that might be in your near future.

CBB: Betting on the Tournament Champion

2010-03-17

The field of 64 is set; you, like many people have filled out numerous brackets in a variety of pools and now it is time to start breaking down the various first round matchups, looking for edges and spotting those potential early round exits by favorites. Having the benefit of using the point spreads from Sportsbook.com helps in many cases and mustering up the courage on money line dogs is another way to make hard currency when betting college basketball. But what about the “home run” wager? Picking the winner of the entire NCAA Tournament can offer a decent payout depending on the odds.


Even with the large field, most years, only around 10 teams have a legitimate chance of winning six games in a row. Long shots are great; however they don’t bring home the cash betting futures. In the last 13 years, only teams seeded 1, 2 or 3 have emerged as champions. Lute Olson’s 1997 Arizona Wildcats were the last team that was not among the top tier of teams as a four-seed. In the 1980’s, we had Danny Manning and the Miracles in 1988 as a sixth-seed and Jim Valvano’s incredible stretch in 1983 with North Carolina State.


Each year, the litany of ways to select a champion is trotted out. Among the various aspects that are all noteworthy are veteran players, point guard play and defensive shooting percentages. Each in their own right holds value and opens the window to opportunity.


A few years ago, I heard ESPN analyst Jimmy Dykes doing a game late in the season and he was talking about what characteristics make up a NCAA champion. I happened to be taping that game and able to save the information and do the research.


Here is his list and what has occurred.


• 9 of 9 past champions had a 10 or more games winning streak


• 8 of 12 past champions won their conference tournament


• 20 of 22 past champions had NBA level player 6’8 or taller


• 21 of 22 past champions had a NBA level guard


It is important to understand what each of these points mean. First, if a team has a long winning streak of 10 or more, to whatever degree, they must be a good team. This season, 24 teams that made the field of 65, have won this many games in a row. Some teams could schedule their way into this many wins consecutively; however in reviewing this list, you see this consists primarily of college basketball squads that ruled there conferences.


Number of consecutive wins: (Note- Four teams has two such streaks)


20 – Butler


19- Kentucky


17 – Murray State, Texas, Utah State


16 – UTEP


15- New Mexico (12), No. Iowa, Siena, BYU


14- Kansas (13), Purdue (10)


13- Wofford


12- Syracuse (11)


11- Morgan State, North Texas, Oakland U. Sam Houston St., Villanova, West Virginia


10- Temple, Vanderbilt, Kansas State


The most notable absence from this list is No. 1 seed Duke. If one believes in the power of the numbers, then the Blue Devils are a non-factor, missing the top criteria.


From this point, we move to conference tournament champions. This is where we can start really eliminating teams. Let’s be honest, its obvious Wofford, Morgan State, North Texas, Oakland and Sam Houston State have no shot at winning six games in a row against this field, thus we can eliminate that group from the field.


That leaves us with six teams that met the first and second variable that would at least in theory have chance to win the championship. Those teams would be West Virginia, Northern Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Temple and Butler.


The next areas are somewhat subjective, however I watch a ton of college basketball  and went through a number of websites that discuss players with professional potential that are likely to be drafted in the NBA.


Starting with West Virginia, DeSean Butler has been in many discussions for national player of the year and looks the part of NBA player; nonetheless he is listed at 6’7, falling literally just short of this criterion. 6’9 Devin Banks might blossom in the years ahead, but has not yet been given such prominence. The Mountaineers have good college guards, yet nothing that appears to be pro material.


Northern Iowa has two players that might be better suited to play in the D-League or overseas in C Jordan Eglasedar and F Adam Koch. The Panthers have smallish guards that shoot the ball well from the perimeter and handle the rock, yet they lack the size or quickness to be next level players.


Bill Self is one of the best recruiters in the country and does he have talent. Cole Aldrich is a sure-fire first round selection whenever he comes out and the Morris brothers (Marcus and Markieff) are 6’8 or 6’9 and getting better on regular basis. Sherron Collins is border-line to be NBA guard at 5’11, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be on NBA roster and be a like former Jayhawks guard Jacque Vaughn. The more likely candidate from the Kansas backcourt to draw a salary playing pro ball is freshman Xavier Henry.


 


You don’t have to have a “Basketball Jones” diploma to see John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins and Patrick Patterson will all probably be playing for one of the 30 NBA teams next season, since most presume they are all coming out. Another year or two and 6’10 Daniel Orton will be joining his Kentucky teammates, along with possibly a couple more off of John Calipari’s squad.


Butler has the longest winning streak in college hoops and is battled tested. Are they really good enough to win a NCAA Tournament, most likely not, but that hasn’t stopped NBA scouts from getting a closer look at sophomore Gordon Hayward. Also, guard Shelvin Mack has a number of positive qualities and like Hayward is just second year player who as of yet does not have a ceiling on his talent.


Temple has a pair of dandy guards in Ryan Brooks and Juan Fernandez. Brooks is a senior and his name doesn’t show up in any draft-nik websites I went through. Fernandez is a good looking player, but seems to be more in the discovery stage in terms of his ability. 6’9 Levoy Allen’s stock is on the rise, but similar to Fernandez, is still moving up the charts for NBA prospects, not on them.


While this might be more boring than oatmeal, Kansas and Kentucky are the two teams that meet all four quadrants of this study. While it is more fun to pick the right team from out of the pack, choosing the right winner is more important. Hope this helps you make a greater evaluation as to what teams could be the NCAA national basketball champions.


Head over to Sportsbook.com now to see the most up to date odds for the NCAA basketball championship. After placing your bets, don’t forget to enter the $13 Million Perfect Bracket contest. Fill out a perfect bracket and you cash-in on an eight figure payout. There is also a $10K guaranteed prize pool up for grabs just in case no one predicts a perfect bracket.


Sportsbook.com $13 Million Perfect Bracket

2010-03-16

Sportsbook.com $13 Million Perfect Bracket


The good people at Sportsbook.com are offering one of the bigger payouts, $13 million dollars to be exact, if someone submits a perfect bracket for the upcoming NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. 


That’s right, fill out a flawless bracket and never work another day in your life.


“What makes this particular contest so popular with our customers is that after the fact that your bracket is no longer perfect, you still have a chance to win part of the $10,000 in cash prizes” explained Sportsbook.com spokesman Dave Staley. “Everyone loves to fill out NCAA Tournament brackets and who couldn’t use some more cash?” added Staley.


The four #1 seeds are Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse and Duke.  The Jayhawks are the current favorite to win the 2010 Men’s Basketball NCAA Tournament at +200, followed by Kentucky at +300. The Orange at +600 to win it all, while the Blue Devils are +800.


Staley concluded that “To be eligible for the cash prizes, one must place $20 in wagers during each round of the tournament.” Seems like a very small amount for such a big possible payout. 


The bracket isn’t the only way to score extra cash during the tournament. Just about every game day during March Madness, multiple Daily Money Back Specials will be offered with the chance to have your winnings doubled or your losses refunded. Finally, Reduced Juice (-105) Fridays will apply during the tournament. Considering so many games fall on a Friday, you’ll have the opportunity to wager on most of them at a discount.


NCAA: NIT, CIT, & CBI offer value

2010-03-15

We all know the big draw at this time of year is the “Big Dance” but the serious bettor might take a greater liking to the action in the NIT, CIT, and CBI tournaments if he or she chooses to analyze them.


Sportsbook.com will of course be your home for all the action on these games. Follow the daily lines on the LIVE ODDS page.


The games in those tournaments are nothing more than glorified non-conference games, with the higher seeded teams playing at home in most cases. As such, the handicapper gets to apply many of the same strategies that they have been perfecting since the tip-off of the season some four months ago.


With the thought of building our bankrolls for the main event, let’s take a look at the recent action in the undercard tournaments to see if we can uncover some winning information.


CollegeInsider.com Tournament


2010 marks the second annual CollegeInsider.com Postseason Tournament (CIT) featuring 16 deserving teams who didn’t get the opportunity to play in the NCAA or NIT Tournaments.


The CollegeInsider.com Tournament competes with the CBI Tournament and teams are seeded with games are played on campus sites, including the championship which is a single-elimination tournament format.


In the inaugural edition of the tournament last spring, no power conference schools were included, and the most well-known teams came from the Missouri Valley Conference.


In any case, here are some of the things that happened in the 2009 CIT tournament, from a betting perspective.



College Basketball Invitational Tournament


The third annual College Basketball Invitational follows a similar format to the CIT: 16 teams, seeded in four regions, with each game in the first three rounds played at home arenas in a single elimination format.


However, the two teams eventually reaching the championship play a best-of-three series with the higher seed hosting two games should a third be necessary.


Last year, Oregon State and UTEP played for the CBI championship. After Oregon State won the first game in Corvallis, the scene shifted to El Paso, where UTEP took the second game of the series before Oregon State emerged as CBI champs with an 81-73 road victory.


Tulsa won the ’08 championship, beating Bradley, 2-1 in the finals.


Here are some betting trends that have formed in the first two years of the College Basketball Invitational Tournament:



National Invitation Tournament


The National Invitation Tournament, better known as the NIT, has been around since 1938 and is the longest running postseason college basketball tournament.


The NIT is twice as big as the CIT & CBI in terms of teams, with 32, but only recently did it start seeding teams in four distinct regions on the bracket.


The first three rounds are all played at home team sites, before the semifinals and finals are played at historic Madison Square Garden in New York. The last two NIT Champions have come from the Big Ten Conference: Penn State and Ohio State.


Here’s a look at the betting story in the NIT, dating back to the 2007 tournament, the first going back to the current format of 32 teams.

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